U.S. Holiday Spending Could Surge This Year Despite Higher Household Costs

September 10, 2026 | United States

American consumers could spend considerably more during the upcoming holiday season, even as families continue dealing with higher fuel prices and other household expenses.

U.S. holiday retail sales are expected to increase by as much as 4.8% in 2026, according to a new forecast from Deloitte reported by Reuters on Thursday.

Americans Are Still Willing to Spend

Retailers have been dealing with an unusual consumer environment this year.

Many budget-conscious households are cutting back on some purchases as everyday expenses remain elevated. At the same time, consumers continue to spend selectively on products they consider worthwhile, including seasonal purchases and occasional treats.

Rising disposable income is expected to help support spending during the crucial holiday shopping period, Deloitte said.

Retailers Are Fighting for Every Dollar

For major retailers, the weeks surrounding Thanksgiving, Black Friday and Christmas represent one of the most important periods of the entire year.

Stores are expected to compete aggressively for shoppers who are increasingly focused on value and price.

That could mean promotions and discounts will remain important as retailers try to convince consumers to open their wallets without sacrificing too much profit.

Higher Fuel Costs Remain a Problem

The optimistic forecast comes despite another challenge facing American households: energy prices.

Brent crude has moved back above $100 per barrel, while U.S. gasoline prices are sharply higher than a year ago. Diesel prices have also climbed to historically high levels.

Those costs can affect consumers twice — first when they fill their vehicles and again when higher transportation expenses make it more expensive for companies to move products around the country.