September 10, 2026 | United States

American consumers are expected to spend more during the upcoming holiday season, even as higher household and fuel costs continue to put pressure on family budgets.

Deloitte said Thursday that U.S. holiday retail sales are projected to increase between 4.2% and 4.8% in 2026, signaling potentially stronger growth during one of the most important periods of the year for American retailers.

Holiday Sales Could Approach $1.7 Trillion

Deloitte estimates that total retail sales during the November-to-January holiday period could reach approximately $1.66 trillion to $1.67 trillion.

Online shopping is also expected to remain a major part of Americans’ holiday spending, as consumers continue looking for convenience and competitive prices.

The forecast comes despite financial pressures that have made many households more selective about where they spend their money.

Americans Are Still Looking for Value

Higher fuel and household expenses have pushed some consumers to cut back on discretionary purchases.

However, Deloitte expects rising disposable income to help support overall holiday spending. Shoppers are likely to remain focused on discounts and value while still spending selectively on gifts and seasonal purchases.

Retailers Are Preparing Early

Major retailers aren’t waiting until November to prepare.

The Port of Los Angeles handled a record 2.9 million 20-foot-equivalent containers between June and August, as retailers brought holiday merchandise into the country early.

Businesses accelerated shipments partly to get ahead of new tariffs, higher fuel costs and potential transportation disruptions.

That means Christmas and other holiday merchandise has already been arriving in the United States in large quantities — months before the busiest shopping weeks begin.

For retailers, the big question will be whether Americans continue spending strongly once Black Friday and the Christmas shopping season arrive.

Sources: Reuters / Deloitte — September 10, 2026.